Insecurity has been a plague across various countries within the Sahel region for nearly two decades at this point. Insurgencies from armed groups have led to the deaths of thousands and have led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands.
Whether it be Boko Haram fighters operating in Northern Nigeria or offshoots of Al-Qaeda or ISIS in other countries, it has been a major problem that West African governments have struggled to deal with effectively.
Countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso have effectively been in a state of war with these insurgents for many years at this point. These insurgent groups have managed to take control over large swaths of their nation’s sovereign territory.
The Sahel, as a region, has increasingly become associated with the instability that has arisen as a result of the battles against terrorist organisations.
Military Coups
Military coups have increased in the area, so much so, the Sahel region has been referred to by some international media outlets as the coup belt. As a result of these coups, political instability has spread across the region.
The region has seen successful coups in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Chad, in recent years. Likewise, there have been numerous attempts at coups in countries like the Gambia.
The military juntas that have taken power, in the nations that have had their governments fall to coups, have frequently cited the fight against terrorism as the reasoning behind them overthrowing the government.
Governments within the Sahel region as a result have been out on high alerts for any other signs of potential coups taking place by their military. However, if the issues of insecurity continue to be unresolved, fears of more coups taking place have been everlasting.
Waning French Influence
Since many nations within the Sahel region had formerly been French colonies, French influence has been ever present. France has typically sought to maintain a strong degree of influence in many of its colonies. So much so, most former French colonies are firmly regarded as being with France’s sphere of influence.
Likewise, France has sought to aid nations within the Sahel in their fight against terrorist insurgents over the last decade. As a result, thousands of French troops have been deployed all across the Sahel region aimed at tackling this threat.
However, the military regimes that have taken power, have sought to severely undermine their country’s relationship with their former colonial ruler.
Anti-French sentiment has been a constant feature in many of the military juntas. Moreover, French troops have been expelled from many of the nations that have seen their governments overthrown in coups.
The leaders of the coups, such as Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré, have successfully drawn on past grievances held by many from the colonial era and have accused France of exploiting their country’s resources for France’s gain. These sorts of messages have managed to resonate with many with France’s former colonies.
The relationship between France and its former colonies has become an area of increasing concern for France as it has seen its influence greatly diminished, and its reputation tarnished among many.
Upending relations within West Africa
Likewise, these coups have seen decades-long relationships between nations being upended. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has seen four member states suspended from its organisation following the military coups In Guinea, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.
The relationship between the military juntas and ECOWAS reached a point of verbal threats being thrown of possible military intervention following the coup in Niger. Led by Nigeria, ECOWAS has threatened to intervene in Niger to restore the government following the coup d’etat on July 26th, 2023. In response, other military regimes in Burkina Faso and Mali had stated that they would defend the military in Mali in the event of any military intervention by Nigeria.
However, the threats in the end hadn’t materialised into any meaningful action. They did, however, result in a major rift forming between the leaders of the military juntas and the Economic Community of West African States. So much so, that Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso would eventually announce that they would be withdrawing fully from ECOWAS.
Democratic Backsliding
Likewise, democratic backsliding has increased as well. As ruling governments have used the fight against insurgents as an opportunity to consolidate their power.
In the Central African Republic, for example, the government recently did away with term limits for the president.
Likewise, many of the coup leaders in countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso had promised to restore democratic rule at set dates with their countries. However, they have so far failed to deliver on those promises of democratic elections and the return of civilian rule. They have typically used the fight against insecurity as the reasoning behind their delaying if democratic elections.
These will be the long term consequences of the current insecurity in the Sahel. So far, The leadership across the Sahel has failed to properly address the problem of insecurity. Their approach has been largely disjointed, with each nation focusing solely on their country. Rather, a more unified approach to dealing with the problem of insurgency, through organisations such as ECOWAS, ECCAS, which would undoubtably be more effective in the long term.