Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, ever since the October 7 attack, has entered into its 9th month. The devastation that has befallen Gaza continues to be an issue of global concern. The long-anticipated (and long-feared) Israeli offensive in Rafah is basically in full swing at this stage. Civilians in Gaza continue to live under Israeli bombardment bearing much of the brunt of the war between Israel and Hamas.
The only positive news to have come out of Gaza in recent times has perhaps only been the news of the freeing of Israeli civilians who had been kidnapped during the October 7 attack. Especially of, Noa Argamani, who had become widely known when a video of her on a motorcycle being dragged away by captures went viral. However, even then, the news of the Israeli Defence Force freeing hostages had been at the expense of numerous Palestinians as well.
For a long time, there have been concerns raised about potential regional escalation with neighbouring states getting involved in the war. In many ways, we are already living through this reality. We have already seen neighbouring states getting involved in this war.
Houthi rebels have on multiple occasions fired rockets towards Israel and have been holding up global shipping through the Suez Canal. Ever since Israel began its offensive in Gaza, Hezbollah has been fighting with Israeli forces along Israel’s border at its north. Ever since then, thousands of Israelis have been displaced from their homes in Northern Israel as a result of the cross-border skirmishes.
We have even seen Iran, for the first time in its history, fire a barrage of rockets and drones towards Israel after a senior Iranian military official had been killed by an Israeli attack on its embassy in Syria. Multiple countries including Jordan, the United States, and the UK had to intervene in shooting down the rockets and drones from striking Israel.
However, despite these escalating incidents, the prospect of another full-out war breaking out had been unlikely. The consensus was that a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be too devastating for both sides, therefore neither of them would be incentivised to escalate their conflict. The damage the Houthis can directly inflict on Israel is limited, thus they have been more involved in attacks on shipping boats traveling through the Suez Canal, affecting global trade. Even after the Iranian attack on Israel, Iran essentially stated that that should be the end of it, despite the fact that their attack had been largely thwarted.
However, recent developments in the conflict between the IDF and Hezbollah have raised concerns about a full-scale war taking place. A recent Israeli strike that saw the death of a top Hezbollah commander has kicked this latest escalation. In response to the death of its top commander, Hezbollah had fired more than 200 projectiles that crossed the border into Northern Israel, as reported by the BBC. The rocket fire has caused some damage and fires in Israel, however, the BBC reported that no casualties had been reported.
In response to the attack by Hezbollah, the Israeli Defence Force fired on what it described as “terrorist infrastructure sites” in Lebanon in retaliation. This likely will not be the end of this escalation as Hezbollah has stated that it would increase the intensity, force and quantity of its attacks.
This comes after rocket fire from Hezbollah sparked wildfires that burned through 3,500 acres of land in northern Israel. In response to that attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government was prepared for “a very strong action in the north” according to the BBC.
In a post on Twitter/X Israel’s foreign minister stated “We are very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon. In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely hit,” This has raised fears once again about the potential for escalation in these skirmishes between Israel and Lebanon.
Hezbollah claims to be acting in support of Hamas and has claimed that they would continue their attacks until the war in Gaza has concluded. According to the BBC, so far over 375 people have been killed in Lebanon including at least 88 civilians, according to Lebanese authorities and the UN, while the Israeli military says 18 soldiers and 10 civilians have been killed in Israel.
The reality is that a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be nothing like the one we are seeing between the IDF and Hamas. Hezbollah is a very well-armed militia that is funded by Iran and operates in Lebanon. It has often been said that they have hundreds of thousands of rockets directly pointed at Israel. The devastation that Israel would feel in a full-blown war with Hezbollah would be much more devastating than in its war with Hamas.
Hezbollah operate in southern Lebanon where they have essentially taken over complete control from the central Lebanese government. It’s unlikely that the Lebanese government could get rid of Hezbollah even if they wanted to. In such a scenario, it is undoubtedly the case that the United States would most likely step in directly to help defend Israel against Hezbollah. Likewise, we would likely see Iran intervening directly as well, to ensure that Hezbollah can maintain its position, as Iran has invested heavily into Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon. Therefore, it is easy to see why these concerns of regional escalation are felt by so many.
This seemingly endless conflict continues to keep the Middle East on high alert over an even more devastating conflict overwhelming the region. We have recently seen the disbanding of the Israeli war cabinet after the centrist, Benny Gantz, withdrew from the cabinet over disputes with Netanyahu.
Even if he wanted to, Netanyahu is unable to bring an end to the war in Gaza because of the hardline members of his cabinet who constantly threaten to pull out of the government coalition, if Netanyahu accepts any kind of permanent ceasefire agreement. Even an Israeli ceasefire proposal that the Biden administration had backed had been abandoned due to Netanyahu refusing to accept the conditions, because of the members of his coalition.
Netanyahu is torn about accepting a ceasefire agreement which can result in the freeing of the remaining Israeli hostages or maintaining his government coalition and his position of prime minister. Meanwhile, he faces weekly protests from Israeli demonstrators calling for the government to prioritise the release of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza and international pressure calling for the war to come to an end.
As long as Netanyahu continues to maintain this war in Gaza, the threat of a major escalation in the fighting with Hezbollah is ever-present. However, Netanyahu knows that his political survival depends on his hardline coalition partners, so the question of a permanent ceasefire remains elusive. US President Joe Biden had once been asked during an interview if Netanyahu is keeping this war ongoing for political purposes and he responded there is every reason for one to think that. That reality is clear to everyone watching.