With the reelection of Donald Trump to the White House, there has been a lot of speculation about what that would mean for Ukraine. There has long been concern that a Trump re-election could mean an end to America’s support for Ukraine. While the Biden administration has constantly shown support for Ukraine in the years since the full scale Russian invasion, it’s not clear that a Trump administration would do the same.
The reality is that the war in Ukraine cannot go on forever. The damage that has been done to Ukraine’s infrastructure has been immense. And every day there are new reports of vital infrastructure, such as Ukraine’s power grid, being targeted in overnight Russian air and drone strikes. The massive levels of displacement and destruction that has taken place over the last 3 years simply cannot continue indefinitely for the sake of Ukraine’s civilian population.
Moreover, the more the war carries on, the risk of greater and greater escalations taking place always lingers in the background. The latest news of North Korean troops being deployed to fight on behalf of Russia is just one of the series of escalations we have seen in recent weeks. Likewise, we have seen the out-going Biden administration now authorise the use of long range US weapons to hit deep inside Russia.
Russia, at the end of the day, is a major superpower and that is not going to change anytime soon. Despite the major sanctions that have been put on the Russian state by western countries, the country’s economy is still growing, and it has been able to carry on with its offensive within Ukraine. While the efforts of Ukrainian soldiers to defend their country is truly worthy of praise, the odds of being able to successfully take back its territory on its own has always been slim.
The best way for a ceasefire to come along would always have to be through diplomatic means rather than decisive military action. In that context, it is perhaps possible that a new US administration may be the best way for a ceasefire between both sides to be reached. The incoming Trump administration could serve as a renewed effort to bring about a ceasefire. However, it is very likely that such a ceasefire would have to involve Ukraine being forced to give up the Russian occupied territories in Eastern Ukraine.
While the idea of Ukraine having to give up territory may be seen as unacceptable to Ukrainians, it may likely be the only viable option available for the war to come to an end. While the loss of territory may come as a significant blow to Ukrainians, there is still a greater hope for the people of Ukraine of a future within Europe. Over the course of this war, we have seen Ukraine being welcomed with open arms by European leaders within the European Union, who have (mostly) thrown their support fully behind Ukraine.
Ukraine now has a clear path towards greater political and economic integration with the European Union, as it has been approved for candidate status by the EU. Moreover, even if Ukraine were to never become a member of NATO, one would imagine there would be some sort of military partnership between Ukraine and its Western allies. So, in such a scenario while Ukraine would undoubtedly lose a lot, there is still a lot to be gained with a future in Europe, but that future can only truly begin to come about once the guns on the battlefield have been silenced.
