In the first few weeks after Donald Trump had been reelected President of the United States, I would admit that I was quite optimistic about his likelihood of ending the Ukraine conflict. Throughout his campaign for president and in the days after his inauguration, Trump made clear his intention to work towards a ceasefire in the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas in the Middle East. Trump would even boldly declare that he hopes to be remembered for his role as a peacemaker around the world.
During Trump’s presidential campaign, he would infamously say that he would be able to end the war in Ukraine on day one. Now, no one seriously believed that he would be able to end the war on his first day in office. However, the fact that Trump had made clear his willingness to work towards a ceasefire was cause for some hope that he could manage to bring an end to the war. Especially in comparison to the years under the Biden administration, where there had been virtually no talks held between the United States and Russia following Russia’s invasion in 2022.
Even more promisingly, in the Middle East, a temporary ceasefire had been agreed to by Israel and Hamas on January 17th, just a few days before Trump’s inauguration. This ceasefire had come about, in part, as a result of Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, taking part in the negotiations to bring about a ceasefire. Likewise, both the Ukrainians and the Russians had expressed interest in engaging in ceasefire talks to finally bring an end to this brutal war.
However, we are now three months into the Trump administration and a ceasefire taking place between Ukraine and Russia does not seem any more likely. Moreover, the temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been brought to an end, and fighting has once again resumed in Gaza. Russia looks to be more emboldened to carry on its invasion of Ukraine, and Israel has been unrelenting in its war aim of ‘destroying Hamas,’ which suggests an end to the conflict in Gaza is also likely far away in the future.
And last month on the 28th of February, the whole world bore witness to a highly contentious meeting between Donald Trump, US Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. The meeting would eventually devolve into a televised shouting match in front of the press pool. Afterwards, Trump would basically kick the Ukrainian president out of the Oval Office and accuse him of refusing to take part in peace negotiations.
The disagreement between Zelenskyy and the Trump administration stemmed from a dispute over security guarantees. Zelenskyy has made it clear that he wishes to receive assurances from the United States and Europe that, in the event of another Russian attack on Ukraine, he wishes that Europe and America would intervene in the defence of Ukraine. Whether in the form of NATO membership or another kind of concrete military agreement between Ukraine and Western nations.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has so far been very reluctant to make such an agreement with Ukraine, due to the possibility of a conflict between America and Russia breaking out over Ukraine. In that regard, the Trump administration has sought to make a minerals deal agreement between the USA and Ukraine, which they have suggested could be perceived as a sort of tacit military agreement between America and Ukraine. However, Zelenskyy has insisted on a formal deal between Ukraine and Western nations.
This disagreement speaks to the heart of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. From the beginning of this invasion, many have pointed to the efforts by Ukraine, and Western governments, to have Ukraine join the NATO security alliance as one of the major motivations for Russia launching its invasion of Ukraine. Throughout the years of the conflict, Moscow has repeatedly said that Ukraine joining NATO is an unacceptable red line for Russia.
However, on the Ukrainian side, they accuse Russia of breaking every ceasefire agreement between the two countries that have ever been made. Therefore, in order for a lasting peace to endure, the Ukrainians are insisting that if Western nations were to provide them with security guarantees it could be enough to deter another potential conflict breaking out between Ukraine and Russia in the future.
This debate has become highly contentious and very politicised within the US and other Western Nations. I, however, don’t view it as being such a black and white issue. The Ukrainians are obviously justified in their concerns that a ceasefire now would only be a temporary solution if it meant that a few years down the line Russia could launch another invasion of their territory. Likewise, for the US to make such a security agreement with Russia does have the potential to set up a potential military confrontation with Russia.
If such a security agreement between the US, European nations and Ukraine were reached, would Americans or Europeans really be okay with the idea of American soldiers engaging in combat against Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil? Moreover, who is to say that the Russians would ever agree to even allow for such an agreement to take place, when they have, from the beginning, said that they would not accept Ukraine joining NATO?
On the Middle Eastern front, after a few weeks of Israeli hostages being released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, fighting broke out again between Israel and Hamas after negotiations for a second stage of the ceasefire failed to be achieved. Now yet again, the people of Gaza have been subjected to Israeli bombing of the Gaza Strip and a weeks-long blockade of aid into Gaza.
Similarly, the possibility of a total ceasefire between Israel and Hamas looks nowhere in sight. Israel has made clear its war aims of bringing back all the hostages and ‘ending Hamas.’ Meanwhile, Hamas has stated that they would only release the hostages only if it means that there would be a permanent end to the fighting in Gaza. How these two maximalist positions can be achieved is anyone’s guess. Meanwhile, the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza has been unrelenting.
This week, much of the world has looked with horror at just the latest news of a group of aid workers being killed by the IDF. This time around, it was 15 members of an ambulance crew from the Palestinian Red Crescent who had been shot and killed by members of the IDF in Southern Gaza. The IDF would then attempt to hide their bodies in mass graves and put out inconsistent reports on the events of the massacre that had taken place against innocent, unarmed civilians. This is just one of many war crimes that have likely been committed throughout this war.
On top of all of this, Donald Trump has recently launched a trade war against most of the world, which has negatively affected markets all over the world. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is fighting multiple domestic battles with the judiciary system in the United States, regarding Trump’s deportation plans and his recent battle against institutions of higher education in the United States. All this to say that the Trump administration has been very occupied with various issues, and the ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia and the war in Gaza seem to have taken a back seat.
Just this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Paris that the Trump administration was willing to abandon its attempts at reaching a ceasefire agreement within a matter of days, if it didn’t look like there would be any possibility for both sides to come to an agreement. Donald Trump would later echo this statement by Macro Rubio saying: “If for some reason one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say ‘you’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people’ and we’re going to take a pass,” according to Politico.
If the Trump administration were to follow through on their threats to abandon peace negotiations, that would likely spell an end to any sort of negotiation between Ukraine and Russia for a long time. In the meantime, it is Ukraine that would likely suffer the most as a result, as the aid from the United States and Europe begins to be used up in the fighting.
In the middle of all of this, the United States has also found itself engaged in military conflict in the Middle East at the direction of the Trump administration. As the US has itself engaged in a bombing campaign of Houthi rebels in Yemen, due to the attacks by the Houthis on shipping vessels attempting to cross the Suez Canal.
If Donald Trump truly wishes to truly be seen as a peacemaker, as he says, we can only hope that the next few months will go a lot better than the last three have been.
